Public Policy Polling

2016 Made Us Lose Our Belief in Santa

The 2016 election sapped us of our hope and joy.

When PPP did a poll on the holidays immediately following the 2012 election, 52% of Americans said they believed in Santa Claus, to 45% who said they did not. We've re-upped that question in the wake of this year's election, and belief in Santa Claus has gone all the way down to 31% with non-belief shooting up to 59%. It's not even just Democrats dispirited about the results of the election who have lost their belief in Santa. Republicans (52% in 2012, 34% now), Democrats (55% in 2012, 32% now), and independents (47% in 2012, 27% now) have all had their belief in Santa dashed in pretty similar numbers.

A majority of Republicans may not believe in Santa but if he does exist they know one thing about him- he's white. GOP voters nationally by a 54-6 margin say that Santa is white, with 41% having no opinion one way or another. 57% of Democrats have no opinion on this question and those who do are relatively divided, with 26% saying Santa's white to 18% who say he's not.

Americans are pretty confident that they're on Santa's 'Nice List,' with 70% believing they've earned that distinction to 8% who think they're on the 'Naughty List.' They're not so confident in the gift prospects for their President-elect. Only 35% of voters think that Donald Trump is on Santa's 'Nice List' to 47% who think he's on the 'Naughty List.'

As it turns out the whole 'Merry Christmas' vs. 'Happy Holidays' debate is something that Trump voters get a whole lot more worked up about than Clinton voters. Only 5% of Clinton voters say they're offended by the phrase Merry Christmas, compared to 19% of Trump voters who say they're offended by Happy Holidays. Trump voters say by a 69-4 margin that they prefer the phrase Merry Christmas to Happy Holidays. Meanwhile 63% of Clinton voters say they don't care, with those who have a preference split between Merry Christmas (23%) and Happy Holidays (14%).

Only 34% of Americans think there's a War on Christmas, to 51% who don't. That's down from 3 years ago when 41% thought there was a War on Christmas to 47% who didn't, so evidently the war on the War on Christmas is one we're winning. 60% of Trump voters do still think there's a War on Christmas to 25% who say there isn't though. In fact 24% of Trump voters say that the War on Christmas concerns them more than a potential war with China would.

Much has been made of economic anxiety driving the support of Trump voters this year, so here's one final data point on economic anxiety for the year. While Clinton voters view the holiday Kwanzaa favorably by a 62/5 margin, Trump voters are evenly divided on it at 30/30. If having a negative opinion of Kwanzaa doesn't spell e-c-o-n-o-m-i-c a-n-x-i-e-t-y I don't know what does. Overall Kwanzaa comes in with a 47/18 favorability rating, compared to 91/5 for Christmas and 75/5 for Hanukkah.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, Happy Kwanzaa, or Happy Whatever the Heck You Want.

See you in 2017.

Full results here

Democrats Have Mixed Feelings on 2020 Field

PPP's newest national poll finds Democrats sending mixed messages when it comes to their 2020 Presidential candidate.

On one hand they say they want a younger candidate, one who's never run for President. 57% of Democrats say they want their candidate to be under the age of 60, and 77% say they want their candidate to be under the age of 70. Only 8% actually want a candidate who's in their 70s, with another 15% expressing no opinion in regards to the age of their candidate.

Beyond wanting a younger candidate, only 25% of Democrats say they want their candidate in 2020 to be someone who has run for President before. 41% would prefer someone who's never run before, and 34% say they're not sure one way or the other.

But despite saying that they generically want a younger candidate who hasn't run for President before, the top 2 choices of Democrats for 2020 at this very early stage are...people in their 70s who have run for President before.

Joe Biden leads the way for Democrats with 31% to 24% for Bernie Sanders, and 16% for Elizabeth Warren. They're the only folks we tested with meaningful support for the nomination at this point. Cory Booker gets 4%, Al Franken and Kirsten Gillibrand each get 3%, Sherrod Brown and Andrew Cuomo each get 2%, and Julian Castro gets less than 1%.

Biden (27%), Sanders (25%), and Warren (23%) all have pretty similar levels of support with white voters. What gives Biden a broader advantage is a substantial lead with African Americans- he gets 45% with them to 21% for Sanders, and 6% for Warren. Sanders retains the edge he had this year with younger voters, getting 35% among those under 45 to 31% for Biden and 10% for Warren. Biden leads overall due to being especially strong with seniors, among whom he gets 35% to 19% for Warren, and 14% for Sanders.

Biden (79/12 favorability) and Sanders (78/11) are the only folks we tested who are pretty universally well known by Democratic voters. They are also pretty universally well liked. Warren (59/13) is the next best known, and the only other person we tested who is known to a majority of Democratic voters at this point is Franken at 44/15. Booker (34/15), Cuomo (27/20), Castro (20/20), Brown (23/14), and Gillibrand (22/13) all have less than 50% name recognition with Democrats nationally.

So there's a tension for Democrats nationally. They want new blood, but their most well known and popular figures don't exactly fit that mold.

Of course from where we stand on December 13th, 2016 they have a long time to get that all figured out.

Full results here

Trump Remains Unpopular; Voters Prefer Obama on SCOTUS Pick

PPP's newest national poll find that although Donald Trump is a little bit more popular than he was during the campaign, a majority of Americans still have a negative opinion of him. 43% of voters view Trump favorably to 51% who have an unfavorable view of him. On PPP's last national poll, in late September, Trump's favorability rating stood at 39/55. Trump's popularity continues to pale in comparison to Barack Obama's. Obama ends his final year in office with a 50/45 approval spread. When it comes to the question of who voters trust more to pick the new Supreme Court justice, Obama beats out Trump 52-45.

Voters don't think that Trump's Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote is really fair- 50% think the candidate who receives the most votes nationally in the election should become President, to only 37% who disagree with that concept. Over the course of the campaign we found there was a cult like aspect to Trump's support, where any idea he put forth a substantial share of his supporters would go along with. We see that trend continuing post election. 60% of Trump voters think that Hillary Clinton received millions of illegal votes to only 18% who disagree with that concept and 22% who aren't sure either way. 

A couple other findings related to the vote in this year's election:

-40% of Trump voters insist that he won the national popular vote to only 49% who grant that Clinton won it and 11% who aren't sure.

-Only 53% of Trump voters think that California's votes should be allowed to count in the national popular vote. 29% don't think they should be allowed to count, and another 18% are unsure.

There's been a lot of attention to the way fake news has spread and been believed especially by Trump supporters and that's borne out in our polling:

-73% of Trump voters think that George Soros is paying protesters against Trump to only 6% who think that's not true, and 21% who aren't sure one way or the other. (I personally had to explain to my Grandmother that this wasn't true a few weeks ag0 after someone sent her an e-mail about it.)

-14% of Trump supporters think Hillary Clinton is connected to a child sex ring run out of a Washington DC pizzeria. Another 32% aren't sure one way or another, much as the North Carolinian who went to Washington to check it out last weekend said was the case for him. Only 54% of Trump voters expressly say they don't think #Pizzagate is real.

There's also been a lot of discussion recently about how we might be in a post-fact world and we see some evidence of that coming through in our polling:

-67% of Trump voters say that unemployment increased during the Obama administration, to only 20% who say it decreased.

-Only 41% of Trump voters say that the stock market went up during the Obama administration. 39% say it went down, and another 19% say they're not sure.

Trump's been in a variety of fights with the media recently, and he's losing all of them:

-By a 49/40 spread, voters say the New York Times has more credibility than Trump.

-By a 48/41 spread, voters say CNN has more credibility than Trump.

-While Trump's favorability rating is negative at 43/51, Saturday Night Live's is positive at 48/33.

Trump's certainly been effective at turning his voters against the various entities he's feuding with though. Among Trump voters the Times has a 7/71 favorability spread, CNN has an 11/76 favorability spread, and SNL has a 17/61 favorability spread. The musical Hamilton has an 11/45 favorability with Trump voters, compared to 61/3 with Clinton voters.

Other notes from our national poll:

Why Pat McCrory Lost and What It Means in Trump's America

Pat McCrory's now official defeat in the race for Governor of North Carolina has real implications for the progressive movement nationally in the era of Trump. 

The dominant reason given for McCrory's defeat will be the unpopularity of HB2, and certainly that played an important role. In August we found that only 30% of voters in the state supported it, and that McCrory's handling of the issue made them less likely to vote for him by a 12 point margin. If he'd vetoed it, he very well might have been reelected.

But the seeds of McCrory's defeat really were planted by the Moral Monday movement in the summer of 2013, just months after McCrory took office.

McCrory really could claim somewhat of a mandate when he was elected. He won by 12 points in 2012 even as Mitt Romney carried the state by only 2 points, and our polling found him winning independent voters 2:1 and winning about 25% of Democrats. He was seen as being a different kind of Republican, and he got significant crossover support because of that.

But despite going into office with all that popularity and goodwill, he had a negative approval rating by July of 2013, just 8 months after his triumphant election. And he stayed with a negative approval rating every single month until this October in our polling- 39 months in a row of an under water approval rating. Only positive reactions to his handling of Hurricane Matthew got him back in positive territory at the very end, but in the end hostility towards his tenure as Governor was deeply ingrained enough in voters that it only allowed him to lose by a smaller margin than he would have if not for the Hurricane.

What happened in the summer of 2013 to make McCrory so permanently unpopular? He allowed himself to be associated with a bunch of unpopular legislation, and progressives hit back HARD, in a way that really caught voters' attention and resonated with them.

Medicaid Expansion? 56% of voters wanted it to move forward, only 26% wanted it blocked.

Sneaking in abortion legislation by putting it in a bill about motorcycle safety? 8% of voters supported that, 80% opposed it.

Guns in bars? 17% in support, 73% opposed. Guns in parks? 29% in support, 65% opposed. Guns on college campuses? 25% in support, 69% opposed.

Eliminate the Earned Income Tax Credit?  Only 30% of voters wanted to do that, 42% thought it should be kept.

Cut unemployment benefits? Only 29% of voters agreed with changes in the law, 55% were opposed. 

Reduce the early voting period in North Carolina by a week? Just 33% of voters wanted to do that, 59% were against it.

Straight party ticket voting? 68% of voters wanted it continued, only 21% wanted it eliminated.

McCrory spearheaded or went along with all of this. And he might have gotten away with it without much impact on his image. Most voters don't pay close attention to state government.

But the Moral Monday movement pushed back hard. Its constant visibility forced all of these issues to stay in the headlines. Its efforts ensured that voters in the state were educated about what was going on in Raleigh, and as voters became aware of what was going on, they got mad. All those people who had seen McCrory as a moderate, as a different kind of Republican, had those views quickly changed. By July McCrory had a negative approval rating- 40% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapproved. By September it was all the way down to 35/53, and he never did fully recover from the damage the rest of his term.

Moral Mondays became a very rare thing- a popular protest movement. In August 2013 we found 49% of voters had a favorable opinion of the protesters to only 35% with an unfavorable opinion of them. And their message was resonating- 50% of voters in the state felt state government was causing North Carolina national embarrassment to only 34% who disagreed with that notion.

Pushing back hard on McCrory worked. The seeds of his final defeat today were very much planted in the summer of 2013. And it's a lesson for progressives in dealing with Trump. Push back hard from day one. Be visible. Capture the public's attention, no matter what you have to do to do it. Don't count on the media to do it itself because the media will let you down. The protesters in North Carolina, by making news in their own right week after week after week, forced sustained coverage of what was going on in Raleigh. And even though it was certainly a long game, with plenty more frustration in between, those efforts led to change at the polls 42 months after they really started.

Keep Pounding.

National Poll Question Suggestions

Next week we're going to do a national poll for our last public poll of the year.

We'd love question suggestions in 3 areas:

1) Normal sorts of political stuff, perhaps particularly with a focus on the extent to which Trump voters believe in various things he or his surrogates have promoted since the election (millions of illegal voters, he actually won the popular vote, etc.)

2) It's time for our annual football poll, so any questions in that area

3) It's also time for our annual holidays poll, so any questions in that area as well.

And of course anything else that might be interesting we'd be open to as well. Thanks as always for the good ideas!

North Carolinians Think McCrory Lost, Should Concede

The North Carolina Governor's race may have been close but voters in the state aren't too divided on what the result mean: Roy Cooper got more votes, he was the rightful winner of the election, and it's time for Pat McCrory to concede.

54% of voters in the state think that Cooper received more votes, to only 38% who think McCrory was the bigger vote winner. Similarly, 53% of voters think that Cooper was the rightful winner of the election, to only 39% who think McCrory actually won. And following from those two findings, 51% of voters think it's time for McCrory to concede the election, to only 39% who think he should keep on fighting it.

Predictably Democrats think that Cooper won and McCrory should give it up, while Republicans think that McCrory won and he should continue to contest the results. What makes the difference is that independent voters- often closely divided or GOP leaning in North Carolina- emphatically think that it's time for this to be over. 59% of them think Cooper received more votes to only 31% for McCrory. 58% of them think Cooper was the rightful winner to 30% for McCrory. And 58% of them think McCrory should concede to just 33% who think he should keep going.

Voters are especially emphatic in their feeling that the General Assembly should not get involved with the results of the Governor's election. Only 27% think they should pick the winner, to 51% who think they should keep out of it. Even Republicans only narrowly (38/36) think the legislature should get involved and independents (16/57) and Democrats (23/60) are both overwhelmingly opposed to their doing so.

The way he's dragging this out could hurt Pat McCrory's ability to make a comeback further down the line. 39% of voters say his refusal to concede makes them less likely to vote for him in the future, to only 33% who say it makes them more likely to vote for him again sometime later. McCrory might look to the electoral history of Dino Rossi following his loss for Governor of Washington in 2004 for a sign of what happens to politicians that voters see as sore losers.

Full results here

Clinton Leads by 5 in Firewall States

New PPP polls in Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia find Hillary Clinton leading by 5 points in each state in the final rundown to election day.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45.

Clinton leads 46-41 in Michigan, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Clinton's lead grows slightly to 50/44 in a head to head between her and Trump.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Virginia, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 1%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. Her leads grows slightly to 51/45 in a head to head between her and Trump.

As is happening in battleground states across the country, Clinton's amassing a large lead in early voting in each of these states. Among those who have already cast their ballots she's up 52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan, and 63-32 in Virginia. Trump will be counting on a very strong performance on Election Day to have any chance at taking Michigan and Virginia, and he's probably pretty much already lost Colorado given the volume of early voting there.

One thing that's working to Clinton's advantage in all these states is that voters would much rather have 4 more years of Barack Obama as President than Donald Trump. Voters in Colorado would prefer Obama 52/44, voters in Michigan would prefer him 52/40, and voters in Virginia would prefer him 53/44. Obama has aggressively campaigned for Clinton as the successor to his legacy, and that's helped her greatly since voters would much rather stay on the country's current course than take the sharp turn of direction a Trump presidency would entail.

All these states reflect the overarching theme of the campaign that Hillary Clinton is unpopular, but Donald Trump is even far more unpopular. In Colorado Clinton's favorability is -14 at 41/55, but Trump's is -24 at 36/60. In Michigan Clinton's favorability is -16 at 39/55, but Trump's is -23 at 35/58. And in Virginia Clinton's favorability is -10 at 43/53, but Trump's is -21 at 37/58.

These polls results are generally consistent with our findings released in partnership with the Center for American Progress in New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin today. This will conclude our public polling program for the 2016 cycle. If you care about the outcome of the election, don't spend the weekend freaking out about polls and forecasts, spend it volunteering and getting out the vote for the side you care about.

Love,

PPP

Full results here

Democrats Leading Big in NC Early Voting

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats are running up large leads already during early voting. Among those who say they've already voted, 63% say they cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton to only 37% for Donald Trump. Interestingly, less than half of a percent say they voted for Gary Johnson, which could be a sign that he won't end up getting that much more support than a normal third party candidate. The big Democratic advantage holds down ballot as well. Roy Cooper leads Pat McCrory 61-33 for Governor among those who have already voted, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 1%. And Deborah Ross leads Richard Burr 52-34 for Senate, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7% among those who say they have already cast their ballots.

Overall Hillary Clinton maintains a modest advantage in North Carolina with 47% to 44% for Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson at 4%. In a head to head Clinton's lead remains steady at 3 points at 49/46. There's been an interesting shift in the candidates' favorability ratings since the debates. When we polled North Carolina a month ago, each hopeful had an identical 40/55 favorability rating. Since then Clinton's net favorability has improved by 6 points from that -15 standing to now -9 with 43% of voters seeing her positively and 52% negatively. Even with all the revelations of the last month Trump has only gotten slightly more unpopular, going from that 40/55 standing to 39/56. Clinton's improved standing over the last month both in North Carolina and nationally may have more to do with voters warming to her than cooling to Trump.

There's little that's better for a Governor's approval ratings than a Hurricane that voters perceive them to have handled well. When we polled Florida last week in the wake of Hurricane Matthew we found Rick Scott with the most positive ratings we'd ever found for him, with 45% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. It's a similar story in North Carolina. We'd found Pat McCrory with a negative approval rating every single month since July 2013 until now- 45% of voters give him good marks to 43% who disapprove. He's still trailing for reelection- Roy Cooper gets 46% to 44% for McCrory and 3% for Lon Cecil. But this race looks more competitive now than it did a month ago when McCrory's greatest public visibility was coming due to HB2 rather than the natural disaster.

Clinton's Florida Lead Continues to Grow

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Hillary Clinton's lead in the state continuing to tick up. She's at 46% to 42% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 5%, and Jill Stein at 1%. When PPP last polled the state two weeks ago, Clinton's advantage was 45/43.  In a head to head, Clinton's lead over Trump grows to 5 points at 49/44.

Trump was already unpopular in Florida but after the revelations of the last week his favorability numbers have cratered in the state. On our last poll he had a net -11 rating (42/53) and that's declined by another 11 points to where it's now -22 (37/59). Clinton, on the other hand, has seen a slight improvement from 43/53 up to 44/51.

It seems like Trump's last ditch effort to revive his campaign might be trying to use Bill Clinton's past accused actions against his wife, but we find that voters in Florida are likely to firmly reject that line of attack. Only 35% of voters think it's fair to hold Hillary responsible for the behavior of her husband, to 57% who say that's unfair. That line of argument might play well with Trump's hardcore base, but it's not likely to help him win over many new converts.

One thing that's helping Clinton's prospects in Florida is that voters say 52-43 they'd rather have another four years of Barack Obama as President than the sharp change of direction that a Trump presidency would represent. Undecided voters, by a 29 point margin, would rather have Obama than Trump. Those folks don't like Hillary Clinton or else they'd already be voting for her, but it seems they might go Clinton, or they might go third party, or they might stay home. But they're not likely to move to Trump, who literally not a single undecided voter in our poll said they had a positive opinion of.

There's been some surprise that the bottom hasn't fallen out on Trump even more than it already has this week. Here are some findings that explain why Trump's not seeing a greater decline in support:

-84% of Trump voters think that Hillary Clinton should be in prison, to only 6% who disagree with that notion. If you hate the opposing candidate so much you think she should be in jail, you're probably not jumping ship.

-Alex Jones floated the notion this week that Hillary Clinton is actually a demon, and 40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss that idea. This measurement pretty clearly shows that 40% of Trump's base is the InfoWars crowd, so they're not going to be too dissuaded by allegations of sexual misconduct.

-We've talked all year about how there's a cult like aspect to Trump's following, and this finding might show it most of all: despite everything that's come out in the last week, 75% of Trump voters say they think that he respects women to only 9% who don't believe he does. Again, if you're willing to dismiss all the facts in front of you to the contrary, you're probably going to stay on board through election day.

-One thing that gives motivation to 38% of Trump voters in Florida is that they think the country is inherently better off with a man as President, regardless of this year's candidates. It seems safe to say the folks who subscribe to that school of thought are unbothered by the last week of Trump revelations.

Clinton's a stronger favorite now- both nationally and in Florida- than she's ever been. But the above mentioned reasons are why she's not up by double digits and seems unlikely to get to that point regardless of how many more bad news cycles Trump has between now and election day.

Other notes from Florida:

Nevada Republicans Abandon Heck For Abandoning Trump

A new Public Policy Polling survey of likely voters in Nevada finds Catherine Cortez Masto with her biggest lead in the race to date. She’s at 43% to 39% for Joe Heck.

Heck’s disavowal of Donald Trump is hurting him in the race. 34% of voters say that makes them less likely to vote for Heck, compared to only 19% who say it makes them more likely to support him. Among Trump voters, 48% say Heck’s statement makes them less likely to vote for him.

You can see the negative impact of Heck’s new stance on Trump in his numbers among Republicans. In our tracking last week Heck was already under performing within his own party, winning only 76-13. This week he’s fallen even further to having just a 70-15 advantage among voters of his own party.

The impact on Heck’s favorability rating with GOP voters is even more pronounced, dropping from 71/19 to 63/25. Cortez Masto now has a net favorability rating 7 points better than Heck’s with the overall electorate.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an identical 4 point margin to Cortez Masto’s lead, at 47/43. This is the first time we’ve found Clinton and Cortez Masto polling on par with each other in our Nevada tracking.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 986 likely voters, on behalf of Catherine Cortez Masto for Senate, on October 10^th and 11th.  The margin of error is +/-3.1%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.

Full results here